“The Statistic That’s Quietly Distorting Today’s Housing Market”.
Why 95% - 98% list to sales ratio can be fiction
Inventory Is Slowly Rising: Especially In Secondary Market
Still below true balanced market levels.
Many homeowners are locked into 2–3% mortgages: they’re not selling unless necessary.
We are in a slow moving, selective market.Coachella Valley: surpassed pre pandemic active inventory.
Days on Market Is Extending
Homes are sitting longer.
Buyers are cautious.
Multiple offers are no longer automatic (except for entry-level pricing done correctly).
Position strategy matters more than marketing noise.
Price Reductions Are Increasing
This is the statistic most agents and homeowners miss.
On paper:
Sold price vs. final list price still looks healthy.
In reality:
Many homes have 2 - 4 plus price reductions before selling.
True value discovery is happening during listing life cycle. Not the final list to closing price.
Entry-Level Homes Are Stronger Than Luxury
$600K - $1M range: quicker movement. (Example pending zip)
$2M plus: slower, longer hold times.
Why 95% - 98% + List to Sales Ratio Can be Fiction
It only measures final list price. Most MLS system calculate: sales price divided by final list price. NOT original list price.
So, if a home:
List at: $1,000,000
Reduces to: $900,000
Reduces to: $875,000
Sells at: $860,000
The MLS reports: $860,000 divided by $875,000 = 98.29% list to sales ratio.
In reality: list to sales ratio calculation should be: $860,000 divided by $1M = 86% list to sales ratio.
Underlying Concerns In This Market
Interest Rate Lock - In Effect (Golden handcuffs)
Millions of owners including Porter Ranch: at 2.125% – 3.25%. (During re-fi boom)
They will not move unless:
Divorce
Death
Relocation
Financial pressure
This limits inventory but also limits buyer mobility.
Consumer Debt & Savings Erosion
Credit card balances high (highest ever recorded)
Pandemic savings depleted
Auto delinquencies rising
This doesn’t drastically affect housing, but it reduces confidence.
Psychological Shift
The biggest change is NOT economic.
It’s emotional.
Buyers no longer fear missing out.
They fear overpaying.
That’s a massive behavioral shift from 2020 - 2022.
Today: percentage of owners who purchased in later 2022: witnessing negative downpayment pending city & zip codes here in Los angeles.
New Construction Competition
Builders are:
Buying down rates
Offering design center / landscape incentives
Covering closing costs
Resale sellers can’t compete on financing terms: only on pricing.
What does all this mean:
Personal opinion: We’re in a slow recalibration.
Inventory is rising, buyers are cautious, and market positioning strategy matters more than ever.
Homes that are priced correctly move. Homes priced aspirationally sit.
Guess Where This Could Go After Experiencing (5) cycles
Three possible paths over next 12–18 months:
Rates decline modestly: inventory rises, neutral market
Rates stay high: stagnation continues (most will not be able to sustain)
Economic slowdown: more motivated sellers, softening additional 5–8% - ish in certain areas/zip codes or more. In secondary market: Coachella Valley, Lake Tahoe, Big Bear, Mammoth etc: I am witnessing more aggressive price adjustments in order to liquidate. Especially at the entry level: rate sensitive.
Not 2008 - 2009
More like 1994 - 1996 slow grind
During a meeting a newer agent asked:
What’s the major difference between 2008 -2009 vs 2023 - 2025?
2008: Market Crashed! Certainty 100%
2026: It’s a slow bleed! Uncertainty (never experienced)
I’m here when it matters …..
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